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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
goonsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
25%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 6 games
83%

goons

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Giant · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 3 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
755 picks · 627 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 534 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
537 picks · 1060 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
535 picks · 1328 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1176 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
461 picks · 953 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
455 picks · 475 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
441 picks · 223 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength58% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:39
The Cut 36%goons 64%
The model gave 64% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 51:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerScourge McDuck
51% · 97 games54% · 134 games
Templar AssassinBoris
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMTD
45% · 268 games57% · 121 game
UnderlordLil_Nick
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightbgod
48% · 153 games43% · 545 games
RubickGiant
Rubick
Disruptor
Disruptorempyrean5
50% · 282 games
Game 2prediction missed49:35
The Cut 38%goons 62%
The model gave 62% on goons — the game was taken by The Cut in 57:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaScourge McDuck
59% · 58 games54% · 74 games
MorphlingBoris
Morphling
Zeus
ZeusMTD
43% · 59 games47% · 104 games
TimbersawLil_Nick
Timbersaw
Clinkz
Clinkzbgod
44% · 14 games51% · 43 games
Shadow DemonGiant
Shadow Demon
Silencer
Silencerempyrean5
47% · 90 games
Game 3prediction missed31:25
The Cut 38%goons 62%
The model gave 62% on goons — the game was taken by The Cut in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMTD
56% · 123 games48% · 67 games
BloodseekerBoris
Bloodseeker
Lifestealer
LifestealerScourge McDuck
35% · 41 game58% · 200 games
BatriderLil_Nick
Batrider
Clinkz
Clinkzbgod
51% · 19 games53% · 45 games
Spirit BreakerGiant
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
Silencerempyrean5
44% · 129 games
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 72%
Series resultThe Cut 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3