BTS Pro Series Season 11. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 11 games
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Techies
bgod · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Bane
Overlom · 6 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
454 picks · 283 bans
Mars
451 picks · 622 bans
Tiny
418 picks · 480 bans
Sand King
387 picks · 506 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
326 picks · 507 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:46
The Cut 21%Hokori 79%
The model gave 79% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 37:01.
Game 2prediction correct14:39
The Cut 21%Hokori 79%
The model gave 79% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 29:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 79%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2