Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 11 games
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
high_shaggy · 7 games
Ravens
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
711 picks · 498 bans
Disruptor
572 picks · 506 bans
Doom
563 picks · 1097 bans
Techies
549 picks · 599 bans
Beastmaster
540 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1040 bans
Pangolier
459 picks · 926 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
The Cut 47%Ravens 53%
The model gave 53% on Ravens — the game was taken by The Cut in 54:01.
Game 2prediction missed35:16
The Cut 47%Ravens 53%
The model gave 53% on Ravens — the game was taken by The Cut in 34:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 53%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2