BTS Pro Series Season 6. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
simply TOOBASEDloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
TingleK1ng · 6 games
Marsoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 995 bans
Lion
382 picks · 212 bans
Mars
370 picks · 617 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 361 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 183 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 221 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 621 bans
Tiny
283 picks · 194 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 25%
Hero pool strength54% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:27
The Cut 41%simply TOOBASED 59%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by The Cut in 48:24.
Game 2prediction correct47:46
The Cut 41%simply TOOBASED 59%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 1:05:08.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2