Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Marssignature
dnm · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 4 games
Bane
Overlom · 3 games
Team DogChamp
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 9 games
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 7 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
Bane
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 6 games
Lich
Bloody Nine · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
431 picks · 262 bans
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 491 bans
Mars
350 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
343 picks · 493 bans
Kunkka
280 picks · 472 bans
Death Prophet
255 picks · 381 bans
Wraith King
249 picks · 334 bans
Grimstroke
246 picks · 174 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 28%
Hero pool strength53% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:15
The Cut 51%Team DogChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
TinyStoneBank
Techiesbgod
Marslukiluki
Shadow DemonOverlom
Grimstrokeyarintheslayer
42% · 31 game
IoBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct40:10
The Cut 50%Team DogChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
TinyStoneBank
Techiesbgod
Dark Seerlukiluki
AbaddonOverlom
Shadow Demonyarintheslayer
42% · 8 games
OmniknightBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 51%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2