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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 1:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The Oversightloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 10 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
high_shaggy · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 8 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
bgod · 8 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Jubei · 6 games
33%

The Oversight

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
N1NE · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
N1NE · 5 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 4 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
layme · 3 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Skyward · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
antoha · 3 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 702 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
575 picks · 929 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 415 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 409 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1214 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 386 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
The Cut 52%The Oversight 48%
The model gave 52% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeScourge McDuck
50% · 31 game55% · 56 games
RikiSkyward
Riki
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirithigh_shaggy
53% · 28 games41% · 50 games
PugnaAtoufix
Pugna
Primal Beast
Primal BeastITALIANO GANGSTA
44% · 31 game
Io
IoJubei
70% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 56%
Series resultThe Cut 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1