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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 11 games
27%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 9 games
44%
Bane
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
29%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Overlom · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
50%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 17 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 14 games
36%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 438 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 689 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 538 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
427 picks · 287 bans
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 584 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 598 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
336 picks · 496 bans
54%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 647 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total55% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:47
The Cut 45%Wildcard Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 46:13.
Game 2prediction correct24:29
The Cut 45%Wildcard Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 36:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 55%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2