PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTHThe Hutwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5A5 Amigosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Hut
Hoodwinkoften banned
bgod · 4 games
Dark Willowoften banned
bgod · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
bgod · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 2 games
Clinkz
bgod · 1 game
Grimstroke
bgod · 1 game
Rubick
bgod · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 1 game
5 Amigos
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
408 picks · 442 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 325 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 719 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 486 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% The Hut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% The Hut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:18
The Hut 63%5 Amigos 37%
The model gave 63% on The Hut — the game was taken by The Hut in 25:14.
Game 2prediction missed28:37
The Hut 63%5 Amigos 37%
The model gave 63% on The Hut — the game was taken by 5 Amigos in 40:32.
Game 3prediction correct34:17
The Hut 63%5 Amigos 37%
The model gave 63% on The Hut — the game was taken by The Hut in 28:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Hut · 63%
Series resultThe Hut 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3