PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 1:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DDirebornwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Tusk
DJ · 4 games
Doomoften banned
JG · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Bob · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
DJ · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
DJ · 2 games
Hoodwink
ace12 · 2 games
Direborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
403 picks · 363 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 186 bans
Puck
347 picks · 877 bans
Pugna
305 picks · 350 bans
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 800 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
Batrider
274 picks · 691 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Direborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% The MongolZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
The MongolZ 61%Direborn 39%
The model gave 61% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demonace12
GyrocopterCije
53% · 32 games
Centaur WarrunnerwoMy
46% · 59 games
Clockwerkdb-
30% · 16 games
SilencerJuju
Game 2prediction missed15:46
The MongolZ 62%Direborn 38%
The model gave 62% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by Direborn in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Demonace12
GyrocopterCije
40% · 82 games
PangolierwoMy
36% · 10 games
Ancient ApparitionJuju
46% · 59 games
Clockwerkdb-
Game 3prediction missed15:37
The MongolZ 61%Direborn 39%
The model gave 61% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by Direborn in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tuskace12
Naga SirenCije
60% · 56 games
Centaur WarrunnerwoMy
58% · 15 games
ZeusJuju
62% · 75 games
Pugnadb-
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 72%
Series resultDireborn 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3