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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The MongolZ

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 2 games
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Hishge · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
JG · 1 game
100%

Ivory

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 656 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
450 picks · 521 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 565 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
373 picks · 191 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
347 picks · 386 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
328 picks · 247 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
323 picks · 899 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
322 picks · 425 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% The MongolZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% The MongolZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:16
The MongolZ 49%Ivory 51%
The model gave 51% on Ivory — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomJG
54% · 144 games58% · 113 games
MagnusKen
Magnus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
44% · 151 game47% · 119 games
TerrorbladeRupido
Terrorblade
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHishge
49% · 209 games48% · 272 games
RubickDric~
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed41:8
The MongolZ 48%Ivory 52%
The model gave 52% on Ivory — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckWonder'boy
55% · 136 games50% · 188 games
MagnusKen
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierJG
46% · 227 games52% · 160 games
Dark SeerRupido
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickHishge
50% · 204 games47% · 219 games
TuskDric~
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 51%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2