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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Moodeng Warriorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 10 games
30%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
JG · 6 games
67%

Moodeng Warriors

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 2 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 2 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Jabz · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JT- · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Abed · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 671 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
475 picks · 409 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
464 picks · 592 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 568 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 520 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 796 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 938 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Moodeng Warriors
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Moodeng Warriors
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:23
The MongolZ 33%Moodeng Warriors 67%
The model gave 67% on Moodeng Warriors — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJG
47% · 172 games47% · 136 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBob
44% · 110 games51% · 90 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDJ
58% · 180 games50% · 80 games
Morphling423
Morphling
59% · 7 games
VenomancerOli
Venomancer
51% · 149 games
ClockwerkJabz
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed43:16
The MongolZ 33%Moodeng Warriors 67%
The model gave 67% on Moodeng Warriors — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 38:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBob
51% · 107 games50% · 169 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJG
48% · 313 games57% · 183 games
Gyrocopter423
Gyrocopter
Tusk
TuskDJ
46% · 319 games45% · 126 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
54% · 146 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
51% · 115 games
Nyx AssassinJabz
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct37:36
The MongolZ 35%Moodeng Warriors 65%
The model gave 65% on Moodeng Warriors — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 1:06:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckBob
51% · 205 games53% · 84 games
Naga Siren423
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomJG
44% · 222 games51% · 142 games
Monkey KingAbed
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixDJ
55% · 259 games47% · 142 games
Sand KingJT-
Sand King
43% · 15 games
RikiJabz
Riki
49% · 303 games
BatriderOli
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteMoodeng Warriors · 79%
Series resultMoodeng Warriors 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3