BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Doomoften banned
JG · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Bob · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
DJ · 3 games
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Bob · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 2 games
REKONIX
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 5 games
Disruptor
Varizh · 4 games
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 4 games
Snapfire
dalul · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Leshrac
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
323 picks · 792 bans
Disruptor
321 picks · 301 bans
Pugna
276 picks · 304 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 750 bans
Snapfire
269 picks · 134 bans
Tusk
268 picks · 248 bans
Marci
261 picks · 782 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength54% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:31
The MongolZ 34%REKONIX 66%
The model gave 66% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinkace12
TerrorbladeTraVins
41% · 45 games
MarsFbz
46% · 33 games
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
56% · 62 games
SnapfireVarizh
69% · 9 games
Banedalul
Game 2prediction correct
The MongolZ 24%REKONIX 76%
The model gave 76% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 76%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2