DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hishge · 3 games
Team Kukuys
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
397 picks · 507 bans
Muerta
387 picks · 306 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 561 bans
Batrider
331 picks · 402 bans
Lion
329 picks · 159 bans
Beastmaster
324 picks · 739 bans
Gyrocopter
306 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% The MongolZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
The MongolZ 50%Team Kukuys 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 42:24.
Game 2prediction correct26:6
The MongolZ 50%Team Kukuys 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 33:00.
Game 3prediction missed24:24
The MongolZ 50%Team Kukuys 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 46:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 50%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3