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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Oversightloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Another NA Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Oversight

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
N1NE · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcioften banned
MSS · 6 games
17%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MSS · 6 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 5 games
20%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
YawaR · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
YawaR · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fata · 5 games
20%

Another NA Team

Tusk
Tusk
The Warden · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
USH · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silencer
FeelinG · 8 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RRL · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
FeelinG · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
USH · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
990 picks · 671 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 950 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
563 picks · 436 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
533 picks · 353 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
520 picks · 517 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1129 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
491 picks · 362 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Another NA Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Another NA Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:47
The Oversight 49%Another NA Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkyward
54% · 127 games46% · 67 games
Templar AssassinArgius
Templar Assassin
Mirana
MiranaAtoufix
55% · 366 games46% · 155 games
Ember SpiritRRL
Ember Spirit
48% · 23 games
Centaur WarrunnerUSH
Centaur Warrunner
42% · 155 games
SnapfireThe Warden
Snapfire
46% · 93 games
UndyingFeelinG
Undying
Game 2prediction correct37:44
The Oversight 47%Another NA Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 50:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSkyward
38% · 87 games59% · 67 games
Templar AssassinArgius
Templar Assassin
Rubick
RubickAtoufix
44% · 696 games61% · 121 game
PuckRRL
Puck
65% · 155 games
BeastmasterUSH
Beastmaster
56% · 120 games
SilencerFeelinG
Silencer
52% · 320 games
TinyThe Warden
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteAnother NA Team · 53%
Series resultAnother NA Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2