Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionTOThe Oversightloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sand King Gomezwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Oversight
Crystal Maiden
sunset · 6 games
Marcioften banned
yamich · 4 games
Tiny
N1NE · 4 games
Treant Protector
antoha · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
layme · 3 games
Mirana
Atoufix · 3 games
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
Tusk
N1NE · 3 games
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 4 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1005 picks · 683 bans
Tiny
656 picks · 478 bans
Nature's Prophet
605 picks · 958 bans
Tusk
553 picks · 434 bans
Snapfire
525 picks · 359 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1175 bans
Disruptor
515 picks · 370 bans
Clockwerk
498 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength65% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
The Oversight 39%Sand King Gomez 61%
The model gave 61% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 23:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSkyward
Drow RangerNeKo
Monkey KingAtoufix
Skywrath MageN1NE
Game 2prediction correct26:35
The Oversight 34%Sand King Gomez 66%
The model gave 66% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherSkyward
PudgeNeKo
HoodwinkAtoufix
TuskN1NE
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 76%
Series resultSand King Gomez 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2