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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Oversightloss 1:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Oversight

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
sunset · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
N1NE · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MSS · 6 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 5 games
20%
Marci
Marcioften banned
MSS · 5 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
YawaR · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fata · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
MSS · 4 games
25%

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Underlord
Underlord
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
922 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
647 picks · 453 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
551 picks · 877 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 436 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 543 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
494 picks · 334 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
474 picks · 1039 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 326 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 80%
Hero pool strength63% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
The Oversight 15%TiltedBoys 85%
The model gave 85% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by The Oversight.
Game 2prediction correct
The Oversight 15%TiltedBoys 85%
The model gave 85% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Game 3prediction correct
The Oversight 15%TiltedBoys 85%
The model gave 85% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 85%
Series resultTiltedBoys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3