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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
The Primeloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOYOwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Prime

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Varizh · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commander
BARBIE-Usagi · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Rusman · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
Varizh · 1 game
0%

HOYO

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
boombell · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 1 game
0%
Lone Druid
Lone Druid
Meracle · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Forev · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jhocam · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 1 game
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
21 picks · 24 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
18 picks · 47 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
17 picks · 46 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
15 picks · 23 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
14 picks · 11 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
13 picks · 15 bans
71%
Mirana
Mirana
12 picks · 17 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
12 picks · 27 bans
63%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
The Prime 43%HOYO 57%
The model gave 57% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 28:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinRusman
little datalittle data
Queen of PainMeracle
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAzur4
little datalittle data
Nature's ProphetForev
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterBARBIE-Usagi
little datalittle data
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingVarizh
little datalittle data
PangolierJhocam
Pangolier
little data
Ogre Magiboombell
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct17:31
The Prime 43%HOYO 57%
The model gave 57% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRusman
little datalittle data
Phantom LancerMeracle
Phantom Lancer
Morphling
MorphlingAzur4
little datalittle data
Dark SeerForev
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyBARBIE-Usagi
little datalittle data
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVarizh
little datalittle data
Earth SpiritJhocam
Earth Spirit
little data
Keeper of the Lightboombell
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 61%
Series resultHOYO 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2