Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
The Primewin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Prime
Clockwerk
Varizh · 2 games
Grimstroke
Varizh · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Rusman · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
Rusman · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Azur4 · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
BARBIE-Usagi · 2 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
54 picks · 98 bans
Puck
43 picks · 109 bans
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
Void Spirit
39 picks · 59 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 39 bans
Monkey King
31 picks · 64 bans
Mirana
29 picks · 33 bans
Nyx Assassin
28 picks · 89 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 30%
Hero pool strength58% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:52
The Prime 41%Lilgun 59%
The model gave 59% on Lilgun — the game was taken by The Prime in 46:37.
Game 2prediction missed43:21
The Prime 41%Lilgun 59%
The model gave 59% on Lilgun — the game was taken by The Prime in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 59%
Series resultThe Prime 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2