Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionTTheOwlswin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
X3loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TheOwls
Batrideroften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Disruptor
Hduo · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Shergarat · 1 game
X3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
271 picks · 405 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 641 bans
Bane
243 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 420 bans
Lina
219 picks · 476 bans
Lion
211 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:21
TheOwls 48%X3 52%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by TheOwls in 48:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 52%
Series resultTheOwls 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1