BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTThrivingwin 1:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CFChalice fanloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thriving
No games played over 6 months.
Chalice fan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
290 picks · 697 bans
Shadow Shaman
281 picks · 179 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 226 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
245 picks · 609 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Thriving
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Thriving
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Thriving 51%Chalice fan 49%
The model gave 51% on Thriving — the game was taken by Thriving.
Model check result
Model favoriteThriving · 51%
Series resultThriving 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1