ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Allianceloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 30 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 27 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 23 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 19 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
738 picks · 558 bans
Puck
525 picks · 1052 bans
Dawnbreaker
458 picks · 595 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
362 picks · 394 bans
Zeus
322 picks · 368 bans
Razor
317 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 13%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:25
Thunder Awaken 70%Alliance 30%
The model gave 70% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:10.
Game 2prediction missed8:39
Thunder Awaken 70%Alliance 30%
The model gave 70% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Alliance in 20:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2