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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 10 games
90%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Michael · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mjz · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
100%

Balrogs

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
DM · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubick
Demon · 6 games
17%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DM · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
DM · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
545 picks · 583 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
461 picks · 229 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 757 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 667 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
359 picks · 358 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 715 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
333 picks · 809 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 704 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:5
Thunder Awaken 60%Balrogs 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
40% · 151 game43% · 26 games
GyrocopterDM
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorILICH-
46% · 67 games52% · 137 games
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMjz
55% · 219 games60% · 116 games
MiranaDemon
Mirana
54% · 158 games
UndyingAccel
Undying
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Thunder Awaken 67%Balrogs 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
64% · 107 games42% · 33 games
SvenDM
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
53% · 83 games44% · 94 games
BatriderÑengoflow KELOKE
Batrider
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMjz
48% · 9 games29% · 3 games
Vengeful SpiritAccel
Vengeful Spirit
43% · 69 games
Skywrath MageDemon
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 74%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2