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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracle
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
33%

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
25%
Luna
Luna
Pakazs · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
269 picks · 390 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
261 picks · 389 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 433 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
219 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 560 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
200 picks · 181 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:42
Thunder Awaken 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
53% · 180 games46% · 129 games
WindrangerPakazs
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingLumière
61% · 107 games43% · 112 games
TidehunterILICH-
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOscar
47% · 143 games53% · 379 games
Nature's ProphetPanda
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGenek
47% · 48 games
Enchantress
EnchantressMjz
52% · 142 games
Game 2prediction correct33:17
Thunder Awaken 54%BOOM Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
52% · 208 games47% · 105 games
LinaPakazs
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawOscar
50% · 121 game51% · 216 games
Primal BeastILICH-
Primal Beast
Sven
SvenLumière
53% · 68 games57% · 210 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGenek
35% · 90 games
Chen
ChenMjz
52% · 44 games
Game 3prediction missed10:30
Thunder Awaken 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLumière
49% · 120 games53% · 152 games
AlchemistPakazs
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
55% · 165 games47% · 175 games
Dark SeerILICH-
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsOscar
52% · 66 games43% · 181 game
PhoenixPanda
Phoenix
Chen
ChenMjz
56% · 43 games
Techies
TechiesGenek
51% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 53%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3