The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 24 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Ogre Magi
Panda · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Banesignature
Panda · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 386 bans
Marci
434 picks · 667 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 462 bans
Puck
285 picks · 687 bans
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 394 bans
Undying
262 picks · 472 bans
Chen
248 picks · 508 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:45
Thunder Awaken 48%Entity 52%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 41:27.
Game 2prediction correct17:27
Thunder Awaken 48%Entity 52%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 41:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2