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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Michael · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 10 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
ILICH- · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Michael · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 8 games
50%

Infamous

Mirana
Miranasignature
Nuages · 23 games
74%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 18 games
39%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Jupiter · 10 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
mini-` · 9 games
78%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Hyko · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
780 picks · 587 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 438 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 382 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 697 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
412 picks · 961 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
405 picks · 591 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 291 bans
47%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 213 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Infamous
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Thunder Awaken 60%Infamous 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomILICH-
55% · 264 games48% · 21 game
Muertamini-`
Muerta
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
42% · 53 games52% · 104 games
Dragon Knight4dr
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
50% · 289 games52% · 193 games
BeastmasterHyko
Beastmaster
43% · 60 games
Skywrath MageJupiter
Skywrath Mage
53% · 228 games
MiranaNuages
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct22:14
Thunder Awaken 58%Infamous 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSmiling Knight
45% · 62 games54% · 23 games
Lunamini-`
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordILICH-
50% · 66 games54% · 125 games
Pangolier4dr
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
53% · 243 games39% · 18 games
MagnusHyko
Magnus
51% · 160 games
MiranaNuages
Mirana
48% · 45 games
Nyx AssassinJupiter
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 68%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2