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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 15 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Matthew · 10 games
30%

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Genek · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Genek · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 9 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 8 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
841 picks · 594 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
604 picks · 421 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 424 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
500 picks · 806 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
450 picks · 928 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
447 picks · 308 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total65% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:31
Thunder Awaken 58%Infinity Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
55% · 217 games50% · 317 games
Nature's ProphetAdrx
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskILICH-
49% · 505 games50% · 118 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickMichael
47% · 645 games49% · 359 games
PangolierLeostyle
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorMjz
54% · 223 games51% · 380 games
Treant ProtectorPrada
Treant Protector
44% · 416 games
SnapfireKiri
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Thunder Awaken 59%Infinity Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSmiling Knight
46% · 122 games41% · 49 games
Wraith KingAdrx
Wraith King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetILICH-
48% · 371 game52% · 199 games
EnigmaFrank
Enigma
Doom
DoomMichael
48% · 253 games52% · 325 games
SnapfireLeostyle
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingMjz
55% · 333 games48% · 28 games
Witch DoctorPrada
Witch Doctor
54% · 478 games
TinyKiri
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 65%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2