BTS Pro Series Season 10. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 13 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 11 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Matthew · 8 games
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
554 picks · 371 bans
Queen of Pain
483 picks · 579 bans
Mars
450 picks · 610 bans
Weaver
426 picks · 779 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
350 picks · 551 bans
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 578 bans
Wraith King
290 picks · 353 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Thunder Awaken 77%Lava 23%
The model gave 77% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:28.
Game 2prediction correct29:26
Thunder Awaken 77%Lava 23%
The model gave 77% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 77%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2