BTS Pro Series Season 10. Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 14 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 13 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 9 games
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
470 picks · 569 bans
Mars
425 picks · 607 bans
Weaver
423 picks · 698 bans
Kunkka
354 picks · 535 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 158 bans
Wraith King
277 picks · 364 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:13
Thunder Awaken 78%Lava 22%
The model gave 78% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:20.
Game 2prediction correct
Thunder Awaken 78%Lava 22%
The model gave 78% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 78%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2