PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 28 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 24 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 16 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
664 picks · 481 bans
Puck
467 picks · 969 bans
Dawnbreaker
386 picks · 476 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 190 bans
Marci
345 picks · 666 bans
Mars
338 picks · 556 bans
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 426 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:38
Thunder Awaken 66%Royal Never Give Up 34%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 39:25.
Game 2prediction missed44:35
Thunder Awaken 66%Royal Never Give Up 34%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 43:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 66%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2