OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Frank · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 10 games
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Void Spirit
Leostyle · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 8 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
376 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 517 bans
Lina
254 picks · 417 bans
Dragon Knight
253 picks · 343 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
Luna
246 picks · 336 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:26
Thunder Awaken 61%SG e-sports 39%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 44:17.
Game 2prediction missed15:22
Thunder Awaken 61%SG e-sports 39%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 35:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 61%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2