DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
Oracle
Mjz · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
Silk
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
DaaD- · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
ShakaLord · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
d1smar · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
257 picks · 374 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 539 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Thunder Awaken 65%Silk 35%
The model gave 65% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 20:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinLumière
MedusaDM
HuskarDarkMago
SlardarHermit
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
PhoenixShakaLord
HoodwinkGenek
ChenMjz
Game 2prediction correct
Thunder Awaken 78%Silk 22%
The model gave 78% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 78%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2