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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 7 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 7 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 7 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
50%

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Puppey · 4 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
YapzOr · 3 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1001 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
416 picks · 607 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 645 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
330 picks · 635 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
327 picks · 279 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
264 picks · 372 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
259 picks · 432 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 82%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:40
Thunder Awaken 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMnz
42% · 22 games55% · 80 games
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLeostyle
54% · 137 games51% · 36 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Venomancer
VenomancerFrank
40% · 25 games43% · 113 games
Marszai
Mars
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMoOz
66% · 50 games41% · 58 games
TuskYapzOr
Tusk
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMjz
47% · 86 games54% · 33 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Thunder Awaken 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMnz
50% · 4 games58% · 41 game
AbaddonMATUMBAMAN
Abaddon
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFrank
51% · 63 games52% · 65 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderLeostyle
52% · 71 game48% · 115 games
MarsNisha
Mars
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoOz
52% · 127 games48% · 88 games
TuskYapzOr
Tusk
Tidehunter
TidehunterMjz
44% · 73 games46% · 29 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 55%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2