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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 15 games
87%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 11 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
100%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 628 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 291 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 489 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
397 picks · 527 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 785 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 555 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 544 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 504 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
Thunder Awaken 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPakazs
55% · 142 games53% · 257 games
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawSacred
46% · 187 games48% · 189 games
Leshracbryle-
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
47% · 273 games50% · 493 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Tiny
TinyMatthew
52% · 279 games45% · 267 games
IoMoonMeander
Io
Bane
BanePanda
53% · 461 game50% · 136 games
Ogre MagiDuBu
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed13:40
Thunder Awaken 58%TSM 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by TSM in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
54% · 150 games52% · 101 game
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Batrider
BatriderDarkMago
52% · 87 games50% · 262 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSacred
54% · 202 games58% · 27 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Tiny
TinyMatthew
47% · 210 games44% · 258 games
SnapfireMoonMeander
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanda
47% · 177 games48% · 178 games
AbaddonDuBu
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2