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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
100%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sanctified · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
Mark · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
997 picks · 694 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
643 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 937 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 419 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
532 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1207 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:44
TiltedBoys 56%CDUB Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeEzekiel
54% · 7 gameslittle data
Templar AssassinMark
Templar Assassin
little data
Anti-MageDouble King
Anti-Mage
38% · 4 games
AlchemistislA
Alchemist
little data
TechiesSanctified
Techies
57% · 3 games
ChenDuster
Chen
Game 2prediction missed16:39
TiltedBoys 62%CDUB Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomEzekiel
48% · 137 games49% · 43 games
Wraith KingDouble King
Wraith King
little data
MuertaislA
Muerta
47% · 11 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
51% · 75 games
ClockwerkSanctified
Clockwerk
67% · 8 games
Ancient ApparitionDuster
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 66%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2