Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fart Studiosloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Fart Studios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 261 bans
Marci
311 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 213 bans
Undying
283 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 442 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 306 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:36
TiltedBoys 45%Fart Studios 55%
The model gave 55% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 43:35.
Game 2prediction missed58:39
TiltedBoys 45%Fart Studios 55%
The model gave 55% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 55:47.
Game 3prediction missed46:42
TiltedBoys 45%Fart Studios 55%
The model gave 55% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 59:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 55%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3