ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MEMouth Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Mouth Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Muerta
N1NE · 1 game
Ogre Magi
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Cucahook · 1 game
Phoenix
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
441 picks · 589 bans
Clockwerk
380 picks · 399 bans
Luna
327 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 461 bans
Enchantress
305 picks · 586 bans
Dark Willow
291 picks · 156 bans
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 329 bans
Sand King
263 picks · 780 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Mouth Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:17
TiltedBoys 59%Mouth Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 32:28.
Game 2prediction missed
TiltedBoys 59%Mouth Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Mouth Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 59%
Series resultMouth Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2