ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Vegetables Esports Clubloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Hoodwink
bgod · 1 game
Lion
bgod · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Techies
bgod · 1 game
Vegetables Esports Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Vegetables Esports Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TiltedBoys 54%Vegetables Esports Club 46%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 54%
Series resultTiltedBoys 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1