ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MDMilk Dragon Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
Milk Dragon Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
481 picks · 399 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 557 bans
Batrider
409 picks · 514 bans
Lion
405 picks · 213 bans
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 657 bans
Phoenix
393 picks · 437 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 588 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 905 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Milk Dragon Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Titan 85%Milk Dragon Team 15%
The model gave 85% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 23:41.
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Titan 85%Milk Dragon Team 15%
The model gave 85% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 23:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 85%
Series resultTitan 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2