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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Titanwin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Zeroloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Titan

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
mercy · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
mercy · 2 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
flyfly · 2 games
50%
Zeus
Zeus
Setsu · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
0%

Team Zero

Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 13 games
77%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
43%
Muerta
Muertasignature
iceice · 6 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
7e · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
7e · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Cty · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 432 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
246 picks · 382 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 334 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 496 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:26
Titan 41%Team Zero 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 24:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenflyfly
41% · 59 games60% · 24 games
ClinkzCty
Clinkz
Puck
PuckSetsu
43% · 51 game55% · 34 games
Slardar7e
Slardar
Lone Druid
Lone DruidELeVeN
56% · 16 games51% · 35 games
Night StalkerBEYOND
Night Stalker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenUndyne_
52% · 46 games56% · 92 games
Lioniceice
Lion
Tusk
Tuskmercy
46% · 70 games50% · 57 games
Jakirozzq
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed33:4
Titan 43%Team Zero 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Titan in 20:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordflyfly
51% · 38 games40% · 40 games
ClinkzCty
Clinkz
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSetsu
47% · 68 games53% · 22 games
Slardar7e
Slardar
Magnus
MagnusELeVeN
50% · 123 games55% · 153 games
WindrangerBEYOND
Windranger
Techies
Techiesmercy
56% · 222 games48% · 92 games
Lioniceice
Lion
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerUndyne_
43% · 64 games53% · 208 games
Enchantresszzq
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed
Titan 36%Team Zero 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Titan.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 64%
Series resultTitan 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3