Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTTMVloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SESky Encore Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TMV
No games played over 6 months.
Sky Encore Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
347 picks · 267 bans
Marci
302 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 214 bans
Undying
276 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 451 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 306 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% TMV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% TMV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:47
TMV 51%Sky Encore Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on TMV — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 23:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAb1ng
Monkey KingAbat
Game 2prediction correct19:41
TMV 46%Sky Encore Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Sky Encore Esports — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 27:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightAb1ng
Nature's ProphetAbat
Model check result
Model favoriteTMV · 53%
Series resultSky Encore Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2