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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Atlantiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
xsilearn · 8 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
mks- · 8 games
63%

Atlantis

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 455 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
442 picks · 685 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 544 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
395 picks · 280 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 582 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 810 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 539 bans
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 658 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:29
TNC Predator 54%Atlantis 46%
The model gave 54% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Atlantis in 39:41.
Game 2prediction correct53:41
TNC Predator 54%Atlantis 46%
The model gave 54% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 50:55.
Game 3prediction missed16:37
TNC Predator 54%Atlantis 46%
The model gave 54% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Atlantis in 44:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 54%
Series resultAtlantis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3