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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Boomy · 5 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
60%

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 9 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Khezcute · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 944 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
372 picks · 531 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 702 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 545 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
317 picks · 313 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 220 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
281 picks · 158 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 284 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
TNC Predator 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGabbi
58% · 37 games53% · 44 games
TerrorbladeDreamocel
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckArmel
50% · 113 games42% · 64 games
BatriderMikoto
Batrider
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBok
52% · 22 games52% · 53 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickTims
52% · 60 games49% · 53 games
SnapfireHyde
Snapfire
Tiny
TinyBoomy
45% · 40 games49% · 58 games
AbaddonKhezcute
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed11:31
TNC Predator 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerArmel
43% · 31 game57% · 32 games
IoDreamocel
Io
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidGabbi
54% · 10 games56% · 31 game
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBok
51% · 21 game43% · 3 games
Night StalkerFbz
Night Stalker
Tiny
TinyTims
51% · 29 games46% · 35 games
PangolierHyde
Pangolier
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBoomy
44% · 48 games55% · 38 games
AbaddonKhezcute
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct29:14
TNC Predator 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaArmel
64% · 32 games52% · 31 game
IoDreamocel
Io
Tiny
TinyGabbi
47% · 61 game44% · 61 game
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixTims
45% · 80 games43% · 38 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBok
46% · 28 games48% · 80 games
LionHyde
Lion
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoomy
60% · 59 games56% · 50 games
Elder TitanKhezcute
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 58%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3