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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Boomy · 9 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 8 games
38%

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lion
Hyde · 11 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
455 picks · 190 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 579 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 867 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 303 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 243 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 425 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
TNC Predator 52%BOOM Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:06:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGabbi
51% · 78 games46% · 59 games
AxeDreamocel
Axe
Broodmother
BroodmotherBok
41% · 47 games53% · 107 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritArmel
41% · 169 games60% · 75 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixBoomy
49% · 186 games51% · 169 games
LionKhezcute
Lion
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
47% · 70 games60% · 140 games
MiranaHyde
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct34:18
TNC Predator 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 46:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGabbi
50% · 71 game52% · 94 games
MedusaDreamocel
Medusa
Kunkka
KunkkaArmel
51% · 46 games48% · 111 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBok
47% · 188 games55% · 109 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Lion
LionTims
47% · 212 games50% · 179 games
PhoenixHyde
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleBoomy
51% · 103 games49% · 127 games
ClockwerkKhezcute
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct27:30
TNC Predator 52%BOOM Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 1:15:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreGabbi
46% · 59 games51% · 92 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorArmel
51% · 83 games55% · 127 games
JuggernautDreamocel
Juggernaut
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBok
44% · 185 games46% · 113 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
58% · 200 games49% · 151 game
PhoenixHyde
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireBoomy
48% · 199 games50% · 243 games
LionKhezcute
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 54%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3