The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fnaticwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Lionsignature
Tims · 13 games
Snapfire
Boomy · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 12 games
Tiny
Armel · 12 games
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Boomy · 10 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 8 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
466 picks · 187 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
Mars
366 picks · 587 bans
Puck
358 picks · 882 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 435 bans
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 404 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:34
TNC Predator 60%Fnatic 40%
The model gave 60% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Fnatic in 58:54.
Game 2prediction missed28:40
TNC Predator 60%Fnatic 40%
The model gave 60% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Fnatic in 1:10:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 60%
Series resultFnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2