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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 19 games
68%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
72%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 16 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 14 games
64%
Luna
Luna
Palos · 14 games
43%

IHC Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ace12 · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 715 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 624 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 756 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 161 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1045 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 749 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
TNC Predator 69%IHC Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 22:04.
Game 2prediction correct15:36
TNC Predator 69%IHC Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 31:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 69%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2