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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilgunwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Febby · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
29%

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 432 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
482 picks · 694 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 295 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 533 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 615 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 606 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
373 picks · 533 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
346 picks · 753 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:22
TNC Predator 49%Lilgun 51%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 42:17.
Game 2prediction correct15:36
TNC Predator 49%Lilgun 51%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 48:58.
Game 3prediction correct15:34
TNC Predator 49%Lilgun 51%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 34:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultLilgun 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3