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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
Febby · 5 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Febby · 3 games
100%

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 9 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
432 picks · 980 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
415 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 706 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 592 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
311 picks · 300 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 195 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
301 picks · 275 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
258 picks · 412 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
TNC Predator 44%Neon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaGabbi
47% · 20 games63% · 48 games
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckArmel
43% · 270 games51% · 71 game
Dragon KnightYopaj
Dragon Knight
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBok
50% · 80 games50% · 196 games
Void SpiritNatsumi
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaBoomy
53% · 82 games52% · 37 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
46% · 23 games49% · 123 games
Earth SpiritPlayHard
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed26:21
TNC Predator 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 28:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterArmel
58% · 113 games46% · 29 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyGabbi
36% · 32 games59% · 55 games
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBok
51% · 26 games50% · 193 games
Void SpiritNatsumi
Void Spirit
Lion
LionTims
43% · 65 games46% · 69 games
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
Crystal Maiden
Puck
PuckBoomy
46% · 224 games58% · 114 games
Nyx AssassinPlayHard
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed42:27
TNC Predator 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreGabbi
54% · 7 games59% · 72 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterArmel
52% · 80 games57% · 79 games
Dragon KnightSkem
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckBoomy
41% · 160 games49% · 45 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierBok
47% · 85 games49% · 80 games
MiranaPlayHard
Mirana
Lion
LionTims
42% · 62 games56% · 118 games
Nyx AssassinJaunuel
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 60%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3