ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 10 games
Warlocksignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
cml · 9 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
579 picks · 443 bans
Puck
416 picks · 895 bans
Mars
362 picks · 574 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 462 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 179 bans
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
Dawnbreaker
317 picks · 370 bans
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 37%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:26
TNC Predator 22%T1 78%
The model gave 78% on T1 — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 46:25.
Game 2prediction missed28:15
TNC Predator 22%T1 78%
The model gave 78% on T1 — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 46:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 78%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2