CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 14 games
Tusk
Fernans · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 9 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 7 games
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 7 games
1w Team
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 16 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Munkushi~ · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 541 bans
Shadow Shaman
455 picks · 498 bans
Ringmaster
430 picks · 225 bans
Jakiro
386 picks · 277 bans
Tusk
377 picks · 366 bans
Terrorblade
365 picks · 808 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 528 bans
Storm Spirit
353 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
TNL DOTA 39%1w Team 61%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightdualrazee
DoomMunkushi~
Shadow Fiendyowaai
PuckSquad1x
Night StalkerNorma
DazzleSSS
Dark WillowFernans
Magnusswedenstrong
Baneflacko
Warlockkasane
Game 2prediction correct21:29
TNL DOTA 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
MorphlingMunkushi~
Tinydualrazee
PuckSquad1x
PangolierNorma
AxeSSS
PugnaFernans
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Tuskflacko
Banekasane
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 74%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2