European Pro League Season 27 · BO5
result vs prediction
TNL DOTAloss 2:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:2
Kalmychataloss 2:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNL DOTA
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 13 games
Tusk
Fernans · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 10 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Norma · 7 games
Marcisignature
Fernans · 7 games
Kalmychata
Svensignature
rincyq · 8 games
Ringmastersignature
not me · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 5 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
meLes · 5 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 4 games
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 540 bans
Shadow Shaman
462 picks · 504 bans
Ringmaster
421 picks · 220 bans
Jakiro
381 picks · 267 bans
Tusk
380 picks · 372 bans
Terrorblade
367 picks · 803 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 531 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:29
TNL DOTA 47%Kalmychata 53%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusayowaai
Svenrincyq
Shadow Fienddualrazee
DawnbreakermeLes
UndyingNorma
Death Prophetxn丶e
Axeflacko
Dark Willownot me
Shadow ShamanFernans
Ringmasteraik
Game 2prediction correct25:33
TNL DOTA 48%Kalmychata 52%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinyowaai
Abaddonrincyq
Puckdualrazee
Shadow Fiendxn丶e
UndyingNorma
AxemeLes
Shadow ShamanFernans
Jakironot me
Oracleflacko
Lichaik
Game 3prediction correct14:26
TNL DOTA 47%Kalmychata 53%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursayowaai
Terrorbladerincyq
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Death Prophetxn丶e
Dark SeerNorma
Centaur WarrunnermeLes
Shadow DemonFernans
Bounty Hunternot me
Jakiroflacko
Lichaik
Game 4prediction missed36:17
TNL DOTA 47%Kalmychata 53%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealeryowaai
Terrorbladerincyq
Dark SeerNorma
Centaur WarrunnermeLes
Batriderdualrazee
Death Prophetxn丶e
Phoenixflacko
Lichaik
MarciFernans
Chaos Knightnot me
Game 5prediction missed24:15
TNL DOTA 46%Kalmychata 54%
The model gave 54% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Invokerdualrazee
Terrorbladerincyq
Dark SeerNorma
MarsmeLes
Phoenixflacko
Undyingaik
TuskFernans
Shadow Shamannot me
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 54%
Accuracy by game2 of 5